Recession Radar

US recession by end of 2026?

What probability would you assign?

33%

One in three. A meaningful risk, not the base case.

Canada recession before 2027?

What probability would you assign?

40%

Notably higher than the US.

Negative GDP growth in any US quarter of 2026?

What probability would you assign?

20%

Lower than full recession odds — one bad quarter doesn't always trigger two.

March 2026 US monthly CPI — what does the market expect?

Hot or cool print?

48% chance of ≥0.8% monthly

The market leans toward a hot print.

US annual inflation for March — most likely bracket?

What probability would you assign to 3.1%?

3.1% at 35% — the leading outcome

Above the Fed's 2% target.

Eurozone annual inflation 2026 — most likely range?

What probability would you assign?

2.8-3.0% at 32%

Slightly above the ECB's 2% target.

Will the US experience another government shutdown?

What probability would you assign?

84%

The market sees a shutdown as near-certain.

Which company will be the largest by market cap at end of March 2026?

NVIDIA: 99%
$10M volume

Apple is #2 at 50%.