FOMC Meeting-by-Meeting

What will the Fed do at the March 18-19 meeting?

Hold: 99.6%
Cut 25bp: 0.35%
Cut 50bp+: 0.05%
Hike 25bp+: 0.05%

What will the Fed do at the April 28-29 meeting?

Hold: 95%
Cut 25bp: 3.4%
Hike 25bp+: 1.7%
Cut 50bp+: 1%

What will the Fed do at the June meeting?

Hold: 63%
Cut 25bp: ~30%
Hike: ~7%

How many total Fed rate cuts does the market expect in 2026?

1 cut (25bp): 31% ← most likely
0 cuts: 25%
2 cuts (50bp): 23%
3 cuts (75bp): 11%
4+ cuts: ~10%

By which meeting does the market expect the first rate cut?

By December meeting: 78%
By June: ~37%
By April: ~5%

Will the Fed hike rates at all in 2026?

15%
$175K volume

Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair in 2026?

~1%
$2M volume

Hold: 98%
$2M volume