Recession Radar
Recession probability, inflation, and macro risk across economies — priced by Polymarket.
33%
One in three. A meaningful risk, not the base case.
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40%
Notably higher than the US.
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20%
Lower than full recession odds — one bad quarter doesn't always trigger two.
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48% chance of ≥0.8% monthly
The market leans toward a hot print.
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3.1% at 35% — the leading outcome
Above the Fed's 2% target.
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2.8-3.0% at 32%
Slightly above the ECB's 2% target.
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84%
The market sees a shutdown as near-certain.
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NVIDIA: 99%
$10M volume
Apple is #2 at 50%.
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