AI Race Tracker

Which company has the best AI model at end of March 2026?

Name the company and its probability.

Anthropic: 90%
$9M volume

Dominant consensus based on Chatbot Arena rankings.

Which company has the best AI model for coding on March 31?

Name the company.

OpenAI: 88%
$763K volume

OpenAI holds coding despite Anthropic's overall lead.

Which company has the best AI model for math on March 31?

Name the company.

OpenAI: 91%
$303K volume

Who has the #3 AI model at end of March?

Name the company.

Google: 85%
$141K volume

Which company will have the best AI model end of June?

Name the company and its probability.

Anthropic: 51%
$2M volume

Down from 90% in March — the race tightens.

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 on Chatbot Arena by June 30?

What probability would you assign?

19%
$61K volume

Will the AI bubble burst by end of 2026?

What probability would you assign?

18%
$2M volume

Nearly 1 in 5.

Will an AI model score ≥90% on FrontierMath before 2027?

What probability would you assign?

14%

FrontierMath is one of the hardest AI benchmarks.

Will an AI data center moratorium be passed before 2027?

What probability would you assign?

37%

Higher than most people expect.

How high will the top Chatbot Arena score reach by December 31?

68% chance of reaching 1550+
$67K volume